Table of Contents
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Dallas Mavericks
Even though the Mavericks trounced the Thunder by 35 in their first game with Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington on February 10, Oklahoma City won two of the three regular season meetings that occurred after Dallas' remodeling at the deadline. It is also worth mentioning the matchup from December 2, if only because Dallas went on a 30-0 run to erase a 24-point deficit in the fourth quarter - and lost, spoiling a 36-point, 18-assist, 15-rebound Luka Doncic masterpiece.
The Mavericks experienced an even more deflating loss in Game 4 of their first round series, allowing the Clippers to even the series at 2-2 despite coming back from a 31-point hole to take a brief lead in the fourth quarter. Dallas is a team that already relies so heavily on Doncic and Kyrie Irving's creation abilities, so the additional burden that playing from so far behind puts on them only hastens their exhaustion, even if Dallas' crowd always seems there to pick up the team when it is in a rut.
It is difficult to gauge just how impressive the Mavericks' first round triumph was. Unlike the Thunder, who had swept the Pelicans by the end of the second game, Dallas had to work a little harder to eliminate the Clippers in six games, even if it never felt like an especially complicated series. Los Angeles was the higher seed, yes, but Kawhi Leonard didn't play in four of the games and his presence in Games 2 and 3 was actually more harmful than his absence in the others.
The Clippers' other two stars - James Harden and Paul George - seemed to rescue their season by fending off that ferocious fourth quarter comeback in Game 4 with some of the best clutch shot making of their careers, only to retreat back into their shells in Games 5 and 6. Dallas' menacing perimeter defense had a lot to do with George and Harden's increasing anonymity in the final games of the series, for Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. helped form a impenetrable identity that would have never been associated with this Mavericks team just a few months ago.
However, one could make the case that the Clippers were a couple of Maxi Kleber aberrations away from a different series outcome. Kleber is a solid outside shooter, but he was 5-of-7 from deep in the pivotal Game 5 and hit a massive crunch time triple in Game 2 that helped secure the Mavericks' first road win of the series. Dallas needed his shotmaking, because a knee injury kept Doncic from playing his typically efficient brand of basketball. He finished the series just scraping above 40 percent from the field, and made just 24 percent of his threes on 11.2 attempts per game, all while getting very little time on the bench (42.5 minutes per game).
Playing almost the entire game, every game, on a bum knee in the first round is obviously less than ideal, and the Thunder are not going to make life any easier on Doncic in the second round. Luka played 46 minutes in that December comeback against OKC, by the way, and that is the kind of workload that will be required of him in this series. Without even getting to Doncic's efficiency and effectiveness, it's worth wondering if his body can even handle this much playing time while also nursing an injury. Doncic has only made it out of the first round once in his career, back in the 2021-22 season. He averaged a much more humane 37 minutes per game in those 15 postseason outings, but also struggled with his efficiency against an amped up Warriors defense in the conference finals.
Amped up isn't a strong enough description of Oklahoma City's defensive unit, which held the Pelicans below 93 points in all four games of the sweep. While Minnesota was making life hell for the Suns with the length and precision of its wings, OKC swarmed the Pelicans with the quickness and chaos of its guards. Watching Lu Dort and Cason Wallace fight over screens might frighten Dallas at first after getting comfortable with the Clippers switching everything 1-thru-4. Oklahoma City has quick feet and even quicker hands, able to wreak havoc on unsuspecting drivers by swiping down from all angles. No team in the league creates more turnovers than OKC (15.7 percent turnover rate in the regular season, 19 percent against New Orleans in Round 1), and no team scored more points per possession off of steals. Youth has its benefits, you know.
Oklahoma City's defense, which was the second stingiest halfcourt unit in the league this season, does have one schematic quirk, one that will likely decide the winner of this series. Oklahoma City gave up the most corner threes (12.8 percent of opponent attempts) in the league this season while Dallas shot the most corner threes in the NBA (12 percent of its attempts). Nearly half of the Mavericks' shots come from behind the arc (only Boston shot more), and if Doncic isn't able to get into rhythm with his signature stepback, then Dallas is going to be need Washington, DJJ, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green to be dialed in from the corners when OKC's defense collapses on Doncic in the paint. Kleber, who sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in Game 6 against LA, is probably Dallas' most versatile piece, capable of playing a credible small ball center or as a stretch four in the supersized units Kidd deployed toward the end of the series. Given his timely 3-point outbursts against the Clippers, Kleber's absence will deprive Jason Kidd of a key spacing element.
Meanwhile, Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault will have Rookie of the Year runner-up Chet Holmgren spacing the floor and siphoning off the paint simultaneously, a duality that has already earned Holmgren unicorn status. Ivika Zubac is a heady strong safety in the screen-and-roll game, but Holmgren is a more dynamic, if slighter, defender whose shotblocking and quick hands make him more akin to a free safety in the paint. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are springy vertical spacers who already speak Luka's lob language fluently, but Holmgren and the frantic guards who surround him will try to prevent Dallas from gaining air superiority in this series.
There is a lot more to look out for here: Holmgren's first postseason test coming against two of the deftest pick-and-roll operators in the league; Jalen Williams and Kyrie Irving putting on dazzling scoring displays that have you briefly pondering if they are actually the best player on their teams, both teams placing their centers on non-shooters like Jones Jr. and Josh Giddey to keep them closer to the rim; the potential impact of Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe and Kenrich Williams can have off the bench if Giddey becomes a liability. I think this has the makings of a classic series with a matchup that we should see repeated a few times over the next few years. For now, the Mavericks' edge in big game experience between Irving and Doncic should be enough to take the franchise back to the conference finals for the second time in three seasons.
MAVERICKS IN SIX
#2 Denver Nuggets vs #3 Minnesota Timberwolves
These two teams emerge from polar opposite series in the first round. The Wolves are riding high after demolishing the Suns, flipping their 0-3 record against Phoenix in the regular season into a postseason sweep. Denver only required one additional game to send the Lakers home compared to last season, but the Nuggets played down to the competition in the first round and were bailed out by two Jamal Murray game-winners. If the lethargy and bad habits the Nuggets displayed against LA carry over to the second round, Minnesota will pounce on them quickly and make things very uncomfortable for the defending champs.
Those two Murray game winners felt like the only two shots he made in the entire series, and his calf injury looms large over this series. Bradley Beal and Devin Booker were fully healthy when Minnesota's gnarly perimeter defense tore them to shreds, so one can only imagine what Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels might do to Murray if he is a little gimpy. So much attention has to be paid to Nikola Jokic when devising a gameplan against Denver that it is easy to lose sight of Murray as the catalyst of the offense in crunch time. Having length and doggedness at the point of attack is just as critical as having the size to match Jokic on the block.
Luckily for Minnesota, it has both. Wolves general manager Tim Connelly built the Nuggets into a title contender and then left to build a tailor-made challenger without sticking around long enough to see the fruit of his labor. Connelly inherited a roster with a franchise center in Karl-Anthony Towns and a solid backup big in Naz Reid, so naturally his first move was to complete one of the most heavily scrutinized trades in league history to acquire a three-time Defensive Player of the Year...who also played center. Trading five first round picks for a 29-year-old who had a reputation as a postseason liability seemed silly at the time, especially given the perceived positional redundancy.
It might be a stretch to call it a bargain in hindsight, or even a fair price, but the gamble is certainly starting to pay off. And at the perfect time, too, for this is the matchup the kind of depth and variety of center that only Minnesota has. The Wolves will start Karl-Anthony Towns on Jokic and then rotate Naz Reid onto him if (when) KAT gets into foul trouble. Gobert will inevitably spend possessions on Jokic, but the soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year is ironically the most vulnerable to Jokic's back-to-the-basket game. That's OK, though, because Minnesota functions best when Gobert is sagging off of Aaron Gordon, playing a game of chicken with Jokic as he rumbles down the lane, trying to deter his floater and disrupt the lobs go Gordon.
Gordon is key here, at least if you listen to the Wolves' coaches. A pre-game segment from the first Wolves-Nuggets matchup of the season showed assistant coach Micah Nori, now manning the sidelines while Chris Finch recovers from knee surgery, detailing Minnesota's philosophy in regards to Gordon. They want him to put up 10 or more shot attempts, as more shot attempts for Gordon correlates strongly with a decrease in winning percentage for Denver. Coaxing Gordon into taking open looks and fending off Jokic's last second lob passes when Gordon sneaks down into the dunker spot will be the deciding factor in this series. I think Minnesota has enough on-ball defense and off-ball discipline to degrade the quality of shot attempts from Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Jokic. Sometimes efforts to slow those potent scorers down will require extra defenders, leaving Gordon momentarily free to capitalize. Minnesota hopes he takes the bait.
The question is whether Minnesota can score enough to overcome the Nuggets even if they can neuter their efficiency. This is a roster that prioritizes defense, which means that the Wolves are surrounding two bigs, which already shrinks the floor considerably, with creaky shooters like NAW, McDaniels, and Kyle Anderson. Anderson is a lost cause, but Alexander-Walker and McDaniels both had some outlier performances against Phoenix, and one or two games like that in this series might be all Minnesota needs to supplement its defense.
With Denver likely to hide Jokic on McDaniels, I think KAT has a chance to cement himself as a reliable No. 2 scoring option on the big stage here. Towns will likely draw Gordon to start, but Minnesota will attempt to manipulate the matchups with screens to get smaller defenders switched onto him, and with Minnesota's defensive-minded lineups hungry for spacing, the self-proclaimed best shooting big man of all time will need to provide much needed relief from three. If KAT can approximate Murray's scoring output for the Wolves, then Minnesota might just have enough offensive juice to have its tenacious defense carry them into the conference finals.
Ultimately, though, it will come down to Edwards, who is starting to look like a dominant postseason scorer capable of carrying a team deep into the playoffs on his own. Jokic's vulnerabilities as a rim protector have not been fully exposed during the past two seasons, largely because Denver's favorable matchups with lower seeds has afforded it the opportunity to pack the paint and force the role players on top-heavy teams to make shots. The Wolves have a few candidates for similar treatment, but it might not matter against Edwards, whose quick first step and incredible leaping ability present Denver with the most rim pressure it has seen since...Anthony Edwards in the first round last season.
Edwards averaged 31.6 points per game on 48/35/85 shooting splits in the five game series last year while striking a good balance between 3-point attempts (8.6 attempts per contest) and free throw attempts (7.8 per game). What's scary for Denver is that he is even better this season, and so is his team. Reid and McDaniels being available after being out a year ago is a start, but this group is simply far more cohesive all together, and the Wolves are playing their best basketball of the season at the perfect time.
Minnesota's dismantling of Phoenix in the first round showed how dominant a defense can be when operating in perfect synchronicity. The Nuggets counter with an offense that subjugates opponents with an eviscerating elegance when everyone is on the same page, but anything short of flawless execution might not be enough against a team designed to disrupt their title-winning flow.
WOLVES IN SIX
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics vs #4 Cleveland Cavaliers
After Boston handed Cleveland a pair of back-to-back losses in December, these two teams have only played once in the new year. The Cavaliers won the matchup in one of the more surprising victories of the season, ending Boston's 11-game wining streak by overcoming a 20-point deficit in the final nine minutes of the game. If that wasn't shocking enough, the Cav comeback was spearheaded by Dean Wade, who scored 20 points and made five 3s in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning dunk with 19 seconds left in the game.
The comeback was clearly a result of Boston relaxing with a massive lead during a dominant stretch of the season that had them safely positioned as the No. 1 overall seed as early as March 5 rather than anything ominous for this postseason matchup. It also marked one of Wade's last appearances of the season, for a knee injury has kept him out of action since March 8, which is ominous for this postseason matchup.
He might be unheralded, but Dean Wade is almost certainly the best D. Wade to ever put on a Cavaliers uniform, at least if we are only judging based on their performances in Cleveland. Wade is a solid and lengthy defend who has great feet at 6-foot-9. Per Cleaning the Glass, Wade had the second best net rating on the team this season behind Donovan Mitchell, and the best defensive net rating, with Cleveland allowing 8.6 points per 100 possessions fewer when Wade was on the floor.
This is where Jarrett Allen's rib injury and uncertain status compounds Wade absence. With Allen out and Evan Mobley playing center, Mobley isn't an option to guard Jayson Tatum, which puts a lot of pressure on Isaac Okoro as the Cavaliers' only credible perimeter defender. Cleveland faced a pair of big scoring wings in its first round series against Orlando, but Franz Wagner's disastrous series helped allow the Cavs to get away with their lack of size on the perimeter. Tatum and Jaylen Brown are unlikely to offer such respite, and even if they do, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are more than capable of providing dribble penetration and playmaking against a shifting Cavs' defense. Cleveland's halfcourt defense was one of the best in the league during the regular season, but it is a far less imposing unit without Allen and Wade.
Even if they were healthy, though, I'm not sure any defense outside of the Twin Cities is going to threaten this perfectly-spaced Celtic chorus. Boston has been an analytical darling all season, and a barebones examination of this series exposes how difficult it will be for Cleveland to make up the numbers just to stay competitive. The Cavaliers shot 28.9 percent from three in the first round, the worst among the 16 playoff teams, while also struggling to generate 3-point attempts (fourth lowest in the playoffs). Boston, on the other hand, led the first round in three-point frequency (44.2 percent of its shot attempts were 3s) and second in accuracy at 39.1 percent.
Cleveland has very little chance in this series at full strength, and this short-handed Cavs team will likely counting the quarters left until the offseason very quickly. Donovan Mitchell willed this team into the second round with heroic efforts in Game 6 and 7 against Orlando, but this team is only technically closer to the ultimate goal of title contention, and in reality the Cavs are nowhere near the level of their opposition in this series.
CELTICS IN FIVE
#2 New York Knicks vs #7 Indiana Pacers
After a couple of heated battles in some budding modern rivalries between the Knicks and Sixers and Pacers and Bucks in the first round, New York and Indiana will look to rekindle one of the best beefs of the 90s in Round 2. My main curiosity with this series is whether, given the right set of circumstances, Tyrese Haliburton, ever a fan of borrowing celebrations, will attempt to reprise Reggie Miller's famous choke taunt in front of Spike Lee.
The Knicks and Pacers enter this series without any regular season matchups with their remodeled rosters. They did split a pair of games at the Garden in early February, but OG Anunoby missed both matchups, which was significant given Indiana's addition of Pascal Siakam ahead of the Pacer's victory on February 10. Struggled with injured Bucks team.
A lot has changed since these two franchises met six times in the playoffs between 1993 and 2000, but based on the current iterations, it is the smalltown Pacers who have modernized while the metropolis magnate seems stuck in the past. The Knicks play very much like a team from yesteryear, relying almost exclusively on a ball-dominant guard who shoots more than half of his shots from midrange. But Jalen Brunson is playing so well that an inefficient gameplan does not equal an ineffective one.
This a clash of styles across the board. The Knicks played at the slowest pace in the league this season, while Indiana played at the second fastest. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pacers attempted the most shots at the rim this season while the Knicks were in the bottom 10. New York was the best offensive rebounding team in the league while Indiana was one of the five worst at allowing offensive rebounds.
The contrasting approaches extends to the star point guards on display. Brunson is a bulldog with ballerina feet, exhibiting immaculate footwork to bolster a deft scoring touch from all three levels, a scorer who can create open shots for teammates, but whose sights are always set on the rim. Haliburton is an egalitarian, the league's leading assist man who skips around the court with long, dutiful strides, often making his plays in midair despite a mastery of the floor-based game mechanics.
After dealing with a Sixers' scheme that relied upon the length of Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid's towering, stationary presence in the paint, Brunson will now face a pack of Pacer irritants by more mobile centers in Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson. I think Andrew Nembhard will draw the opening assignment, and T.J. McConnell will certainly be tagged in. If Rick Carlisle wants to show Brunson a bigger defender, then Aaron Nesmith will spend a few possessions tracking Brunson.
Tyrese Maxey played well enough that I didn't look like a total fool for suggesting he might be the best guard in the Knicks-Sixers series, but there is no question that Brunson is the best player in this series by a considerable margin. The Haliburton who led the Pacers to the In-Season Tournament Final would be make a little more of a discussion, but he has not been the same since his hamstring injury in early January. Haliburton only averaged 16 points per game on 44/30/86 shooting splits against the Bucks and the lethal pull-up 3-pointers that had lifted his game to another level seems to have totally abandoned him.
Indiana will rely on Siakam to pick up the scoring slack. He was eager to showcase his talents as a No. 1 option at the start of the Milwaukee series, dropping 36 and 37 points in Games 1 and 2, but his scoring tailed off in the final four games of the series even though the Bucks never had Giannis Antetokounmpo around to defend him. Anunoby has never defended his former Raptor teammate before, but he ticks all of the boxes of someone you would want to stick on Siakam. Anunoby's self-created scoring has not progressed as much as many expected by this point in his career, but his defense is top-of-the-line at his position, and Anunoby keeping Siakam from reaching the level he started the Milwaukee series at will be critical for the Knicks.
The concern here for the Knicks is mileage and their dwindling depth. The Knicks are maxing out their top three players, which is what you would expect from a Tom Thibodeau team, especially given the circumstances with Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic both out for the season. Josh Hart averaged 46 minutes per game in the first round, played all 48 in Game 2 and all 53 in Game 5. Duece McBride's exhilarating two-way play has earned enough of Thibs' trust to buy Donte DiVincenzo some rest.
Isaiah Hartenstein is the only starter averaging fewer than 33 minutes per game, and that is only because Mitchell Robinson is gutting it out through multiple injuries. Robinson is clearly laboring every time he makes it down the floor, but he can still be impactful on the glass against Indiana's reserve frontline. Outside of McBride and Hartenstein, the only other player who seems qualified for a chance at this level is Precious Achiuwa, but it is unlikely that he would step into anything other than a bit role. Josh Hart may need to start sharing his oxygen mask with the rest of the starters.
On the other hand, Rick Carlisle can go pretty deep without his team's ethos transforming at all. All of Indiana's guards capable of pushing the ball and getting downhill, and in some ways Nembhard and McConnell are more effective than Haliburton when doing so at the moment. Turner's three-point shooting and athleticism at the rim is going to make it very difficult for New York to cover all of the prime real estate without breaking down, particularly as the number on the odometer gets higher and higher later in the series.
But I wasn't all that impressed with Indiana's play against a skeleton Bucks squad in the first round, and with the form Brunson is in, I can very easily see the Knicks taking their tank all the way down to 'E' in this series while still having enough Brunson magic to get over the hump. The exertion it will take for this New York team to win this series will cement its place in franchise lore, and cult status among an adoring fanbase might be the only reward for its efforts. Because nobody will be happier about an exhausted Knicks team advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals than Boston, which has yet to break a sweat this postseason.
KNICKS IN FIVE
