Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #8 New Orleans Pelicans
In terms of whether people believe they can actually win a title, the Thunder enter the postseason as the most dismissed No. 1 seed in the past decade, and understandably so. There was virtually no separation between the top three teams in the Western Conference, and among the top three, Oklahoma City had its full complement of rotation players available most often, and that is significant when seeding comes down to tiebreakers. Given Denver’s championship pedigree and Minnesota’s more seasoned bunch, the Thunder’s lack of playoff resume makes them difficult to posture as a legitimate threat among the top seeds.
Aside from Gordon Hayward, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and Lu Dort are the only two players in the rotation with postseason experience, and that came almost exclusively in the bubble’s muted playoff environment. SGA also had a far different role then, playing off of or behind Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder. His only postseason test as an alpha came last season in OKC’s two play-in games; he balled out in New Orleans to send the Pelicans home in the 9/10 game but struggled mightily in the matchup with his cousin Nickeil Alexander-Walker as the Timberwolves claimed the final playoff spot in the West.
It is difficult to talk about the Thunder without sounding like you are belittling what was a truly excellent regular season – Mark Daigneault is a lock for Coach of the Year for having OKC as the No. 2 half-court offense and defense in the league – because it certainly feels like they’ve skipped a step in the typical trendline for aspiring teams. That’s commendable in the sense that their talent is progressing rapidly and they are clearly going to be in the heavyweight conversations very soon, but taking your lumps in the postseason is a vital part of reaching the top in this league. The Thunder are like a bookworm who pored over the textbook cover to cover instead of going to class – only to find out all of the questions on the exam are from the lectures instead.
Oklahoma City’s inaugural title-contending core offers a great example of this. The Durant/Westbrook/Harden Thunder’s best two seasons – a conference finals loss to eventual champions Dallas in 2011 and a Finals loss to the Heat in 2012 – were preceded by an 8th-placed finish in 2009-2010 (with 50 wins, no less…the West has always been brutal) and a spirited first-round loss to the eventual champion Lakers. That series finished with Pau Gasol’s last-second rebound and putback of a Kobe Bryant baseline fadeaway with the Lakers down 94-93 in Game 6. Oklahoma City was a second, a rebound away from forcing a Game 7 in Los Angeles; instead, two Hall-of-Famers were one step closer to another championship. That’s the kind of formative postseason memory that this current Thunder core lacks, and it’s reasonable to believe that experiencing adversity, stakes, and attention like that is more integral to a team’s growth as a title contender than fast-tracking its way to the No. 1 seed.
It would have been en vogue to predict an upset here, but things broke about as favorably as they could have for Oklahoma City in the final two games of the regular season, as well as the results of the play-in. The Lakers were the only West team that OKC had a losing record against in the regular season (1-3), so avoiding them was a stroke of good fortune. Similarly, the Thunder will benefit from watching the Pelicans emerge as the No. 8 seed with an injured Zion Williamson.
The third time was not the charm for the Pelicans, having lost three consecutive times to the Lakers in one-off games with elevated stakes – twice in embarrassing fashion (in the IST semifinal in Las Vegas and in Game 82) and the most recent in excruciating fashion when Zion hobbled out of a tie game in the last three minutes. They rebounded well to thump the Kings to remain in the postseason picture, just barely preventing the catastrophic freefall from No. 6 seed to Cancun in less than a week’s time.
One has to wonder how much this postseason experience will do for New Orleans given Zion’s absence for at least the first few games of this series. Coincidentally, this group’s only taste of postseason action came in the 9/10 against OKC last season, which they lost on their home floor with Zion in street clothes. I am not sure if anything can be garnered regarding the potency of this core given that it will, unsurprisingly, not be whole.
The Pelicans are at their best when Zion is surrounded by ace shooting and lengthy defenders. This was obvious in his magnificent the 7/8 game against the Lakers – 40 points on 17-of-27 shooting, 11 rebounds, 5 assists and total domination of Anthony Davis when attacking the paint – which made his injury all the more tragic. That said, it is worth noting that New Orleans is also quite good when Brandon Ingram is surrounded by shooting and lengthy defenders. Although the Pelicans were closer to middling than magnificent with Ingram and Zion on the floor together, the next best thing for New Orleans after Zion and spacing is Ingram and spacing.
| Lineup | Poss. | Off. Rtg | Def. Rtg | Net Rtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion + Ingram | 2239 | 116.5 | 114.3 | +2.2 |
| Zion, no Ingram/Jonas | 1612 | 118.0 | 113.9 | +4.1 |
| Ingram, no Zion/Jonas | 944 | 124.5 | 111.6 | +12.9 |
You can interpret that data in many different ways. The way I choose to is to credit New Orleans for nailing the 3-thru-6 spots in its rotation with Trey Murphy III, Naji Marshall, CJ McCollum and Herbert Jones, a quartet that would enhance every superstar couple you could place it around. The question for the Pelicans is how credible Zion and Ingram are as a top two, if they even qualify as a star duo given the modern NBA’s comprehensive criteria. For years, injuries have prevented New Orleans from drawing any firm conclusions, until this season when Ingram started a career-high 64 games and Zion played a career-high 74. The results were far from convincing, unless you were already slightly convinced that Ingram wasn’t the right fit next to Zion. Alas, Zion’s untimely injury has robbed the Pelicans of the chance to see how their two best players would co-exist in a postseason environment – as well as any hope New Orleans had of competing in this series.
THUNDER IN FIVE
#2 Denver Nuggets vs #7 Los Angeles Lakers
Denver’s path to the title last season was such a smooth ride that the only contentious part about it was their three Western conference foes arguing post hoc about who gave them the most competitive series. Minnesota believed its size gave Nikola Jokic his toughest matchup, the Lakers felt they were a couple of hail mary fourth quarter buckets away from turning a sweep into a lengthy series and Phoenix was the only team in the playoffs that made Denver play a Game 6.
LA’s case seems the flimsiest because, you know, they didn’t win a game. But Jokic gave credence to the idea in his pre-series scrum, stating that the Lakers gave Denver “probably the toughest series that we had.” Still, Denver has beaten the Lakers eight straight times, and there is very little to suggest that LA is in a position to reverse that trend.
The Nuggets have lost a couple of key contributors from their title-winning team, it’s true, but neither Bruce Brown nor Jeff Green wound up on the Lakers, so it likely won’t matter in this series. Los Angeles could have used them both, but it returns almost the exact same rotation that got outclassed last season. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura were overpaid because sometimes you just have to settle for what’s sitting in the fridge. Gabe Vincent earned himself a payday on the strength of a solid Game 2 in the Finals, scoring 23 points as Denver struggled to defend an off-ball screening action between he and Duncan Robinson. Vincent shot 1 -of-14 from 3 in the final three games of the series, which looked more like the player he has been his entire career. Darwin Ham will put Vincent and/or Spencer Dinwiddie on the floor in the early going of this series but he will soon realize neither are playable in this series.
Or maybe he won’t realize it, because Ham is an awful coach who hoards timeouts like my aunt hoards ketchup packets from Whataburger. His rotations don’t make sense, he doesn’t recognize when he needs to to break up a free-flowing opponent and his schematic input is nonexistent, completely relying on Year-21 LeBron to carry the offense and Anthony Davis to cover for the roster’s massive holes defensively. Denver is too well manicured to break a nail in this series, and its familiarity in this matchup will only ratchet up its ruthlessness and the Nuggets look to send the Lakers home for a second straight season.
NUGGETS IN FIVE
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs #6 Phoenix Suns
Minnesota’s upbeat and ascendant campaign came crashing down in the final week of the regular season. Relinquishing control of the No. 1 seed in a road loss to Denver in Game 80 wasn’t exactly embarrassing, but after the Spurs shocked the Nuggets in Game 81 to open up the possibility of getting back ahead of the defending champs, Minnesota came out at home in Game 82 and got blitzed by a Suns team that was desperate to get out of the play-in spots. As a result of the drubbing (and the Lakers’ even more destructive takedown of New Orleans), Phoenix climbed to the 6th seed…and Minnesota dropped to 3rd.
You couldn’t imagine a worse scenario for the Wolves, who lost the season series 3-0 to the Suns and looked particularly empty while doing so. Not only did they drop into their most difficult possible matchup, and lose homecourt advantage in a hypothetical second-round matchup with Denver, they also enter the postseason having just been ripped apart by the same opponent they will been squaring off against. Some regular season series, such as Dallas versus LAC, don’t tell us much because of the time that has transpired since the last matchup. This is the exact opposite. Phoenix already had confidence in this matchup, and the recency of its latest triumph will only stoke its flames. To take a Minnesota-slanted point-of-view on the situation: If we treat Game 82 as the opener of this series, it is difficult to see the Suns replicating such a thorough effort in the first two actual games.
But perhaps they will. There are some matchup concerns here. The primary issue for the Wolves is that the Suns counter Minnesota’s unique identity – a paint-protecting five who is almost always flanked by a floor-spacing five to create a massive frontline – with Kevin Durant. With Devin Booker and Bradley Beal alongside him, having three premium perimeter scoring options plus legitimate spacing has been the kryptonite for Minnesota’s hulking frontline. Grayson Allen had one of the best high-volume three-point shooting series ever, stamping his signing as a masterful offseason addition after Landry Shamet and Josh Okogie’s lack of aura allowed Denver to crowd Booker and Durant last postseason. Add Beal’s fluid three-level game on top of an ace spot-up shooter and a couple of reliable veterans (Eric Gordon and Royce O’Neale) and Phoenix has just enough variations of a smallball unit to create a true clash of styles.
That might be the only option for the Suns, though, with Jusuf Nurkic and Drew Eubanks being closer to foils than forces down low. And while the top-end talents they have on display are luminous, there is quite a bit of redundancy. Minnesota’s league-best defense is not the kind of unit you want to face with a uniform attack plan; there has to be variation and precision to get this unit off kilter. Regardless of how much you think Beal has actually raised the ceiling here, I think a series like this can expose the decision to move on from Chris Paul. Paul might have been fossilizing in Golden State this season, but even at 38 he still brought structure and stature, no small feat on a veteran team running a proven system. From an unwavering floor general to parsing out ball-handling duties among a trio of guys who each play to the tune of their own dribbles – that’s the kind of thing that the Wolves’ ball pressure can feast on.
I’m less worried about the Wolves overcoming the stress Phoenix’s scoring and spacing put on their defense during the regular season than I am about Minnesota’s scuppering offense finding a consistent level against dialed-in opposition. There is a spacing cost to the tenacious and lengthy defensive units Chris Finch deploys, and Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will be invited to prove themselves as outside threats in a pressure cooker environment. But in a series where Phoenix’s gunners will get all the attention, perhaps now is finally the time that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns infuse their brilliant individual talents within a sensible offensive framework.
Edwards’ charge toward the scoring frequency that Booker and Durant operate at is palpable, and he’s revving up offensively while also helping to shape the team’s competitive defensive identity. Towns’ two-way commitment has been a little less firm, but in a way, the fact that his offensive potential was largely untapped this season feels dangerous. Unlike the Suns, who squeezed every drop of sweat from its stars just to avoid the play-in, the Wolves were able to fly through the regular season on the strength of its collective defense, rarely requiring Edwards to put on his cape (though he took great pleasure in doing so when required). The postseason will be more demanding. Shotmaking can be as important as systems when the game bogs down. Minnesota is well prepared to match Phoenix’s big three with a pack of ravenous defenders. Are Edwards and Towns ready to feast on the other end?
WOLVES IN SIX
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs #5 Dallas Mavericks
The perfect series for a new generation of basketball purists. For many, the ball and man movement of the 2013-14 Spurs, 2015-19 Warriors and present-day Nuggets represent the idyllic iteration of the game. The Mavericks and Clippers will invert all of their ideals, creating a fluent democracy via a series of one-on-one debates. If those Spurs, Warriors and Nuggets teams operate in perfect synchronicity like a finely-tuned orchestra, the Clippers and Mavericks are about to engage in a rap battle. Taking turns, 24 seconds on the clock, same instrumentals. Rhythm emanating from the mic-holder to the crowd, not vice versa. Whose bars will be sharpest? Whose cadence is most defined?
Jason Kidd and Tyronn Lue will try their best to stay out of the way. The Clippers led the league in isolations, which accounted for 12 percent of their offense; the only other team above 10 percent was Dallas (10.5 percent). No ghostwriters needed. This is a series of matchup hunting, switching 1-thru-5, helping-the-helper, crashing the glass and hitting the kind of difficult shots that would get you crucified at Sloan a decade ago.
But we live in a different age, and the stuff Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and James Harden do on a regular basis reimagines a paradoxically 1-on-all approach as something everyone can take part in. Luka will hunt Harden, Harden will hunt Luka, Kyrie will hunt Harden, Paul George will hunt Kyrie. Behind the key figures, a pair of blue collar bunches will help and recover and help again, and take a crumby corner 3 as their reward when the Usage Rates are getting full. Start to guard against the three-point line and these maestros can’t help but grin. Those poor schmucks on the backline, damned if they do, damned if they don’t. Approach Luka in the lane with caution; one step too far and Dereck Lively is already looking down upon you. Ivica Zubac will dunk too, but he probably won’t see much from up there.
In fairness, the Clippers had a larger vocabulary to draw from for most of the season, even if it was still mostly synonyms of hero ball (noun, derived from the Japanese term for tender meat). Kawhi Leonard’s cartographic approach is a bit more localized than that of the flaunty globetrotters featured this affair, but it is just as worldly when he’s right. His injury is ambiguous, or maybe it isn’t. I’ll keep saying it’s ambiguous because clarity probably means that Kawhi has a chronically bum knee and that makes me sad. Paul George is Leonard’s Vice President, but the Clippers’ constitution necessitates that the Minister of Sordid Affairs takes over as head of state in times of crisis.
James Harden toed the line between dictator and diplomat almost flawlessly for the Houston, galvanizing rosters comprised mostly of realized data points, only he never really gelled with Dwight Howard or Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook. Also, his Rockets kept playing the greatest basketball team ever in the playoffs, which was less than ideal. He quiet quit his final season in Houston by showing up to training camp out of shape, played his way back into shape with the Nets, hurt his hamstring, lost to the eventual champs by a half a shoe size and soon decided he no longer wanted to share a locker room with someone who was losing a beef with Eric Adams. Memorably, Philly Harden had some phenomenal moments in the second round against Boston last season – 45 points in Game 1 and 42 points in Game 4 – before submitting some embarrassing performances that were, in typical Harden fashion, even more memorable (4-of-16 at home in a closeout Game 6 and 9 points and a -30 in a laugher of a Game 7).
Strangely, for a team with four former all-stars, this particular set of peers is the one least at odds with Harden’s worldview. Once Harden settled in, they looked like one of the best units in basketball, his pick-and-roll auteurship providing hierarchy and propelling ball movement for a team that had a tendency to get stuck in muddier contests. It is still a very much a trickle down approach with Harden in control of the offense, though, and if he flirts with postseason truancy again, the Clippers will be off to Inglewood rather quickly. Allowing one star complete creative control is almost guaranteed to halt production at some point, be it bickering, bricked shots or malaise.
No matter what happens in this series, though, this way of playing will triumph. Because Doncic’s Mavs are a close adaptation of Harden’s Rockets, borrowing sets and copying lines of dialogue verbatim. 511 ISOs for Luka on the season, enough to make Harden jealous of his screen time with his paltry 280 monologues (ninth-most in the league). Kyrie (262 ISOs), George (256) and Leonard (252) round out the top 15, and each of them will have important cameos that give them a chance to steal the scene. PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Dante Exum, Amir Coffey, Terrance Mann and a re-cast Westbrook are the stuntmen of these crews. None as charming as Ryan Gosling, but he wouldn’t survive a possession trying to stay in front of these guys.
Doncic led the league in shot attempts after seven dribbles, hoisting 9.9 such prayers per game. That’s an impressive amount of hoisting, until I unveil to you that Harden took 13 such attempts per game in 2018-19. You still have a lot to learn, kid. Irving and George have complimentary enough skill sets to weave themselves into the game in between Doncic and Harden diatribes, but if anything more is asked of them, playoff history says Irving will be more capable of handling a heavier burden. George has a chance to re-write that playoff history before entering free agency this summer, when many teams that feel one piece away will identify George as that missing piece. He’s got a lot to apologize for, but you can’t disagree if he argues that the Clippers curse has smothered most of his good-faith attempts at repentance anyway.
Before Harden’s arrival, the thing that set the Clippers apart was that their two best players were extravagantly decorated on both sides of the ball. But remove Kawhi’s defense, which was slowly worsening with age, and his ability to steady the ship offensively in choppy postseason waters, and LA suddenly feels much more like another Harden experiment than a super team. In a battle of singular talents, Doncic’s path is ascending, because Harden laid the bricks.
MAVERICKS IN SIX
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics vs #8 Miami Heat
I eagerly await the one game in this series when the Heat briefly resemble the team that grinded its way to the NBA Finals last season, conjuring Bostonian fears that they are about to have another out-of-body experience. They would be reasonable fears. A formidable forge of Erik Spoelstra’s obsessive logos and Pat Riley’s merciless ethos, the Heat capitalize on weakness more effectively than any team in the league. Despite an expertly-arranged roster, these Celtics are haunted by glaring psychological weaknesses, and last season’s nightmare Eastern Conference Finals performance assures that Boston is always one Miami victory on the parquet away from needing to crawl into bed with mommy and daddy.
But these are your parents’ Heat. Not without Jimmy Butler. Tyler Herro is healthy, Nikola Jovic is better, rookie Jaime Jacquez Jr. would have been the Lakers’ third-best player if LA had the foresight to keep the hometown kid around with the 17th pick (related: Miami owned the 18th pick, and drafted the Rookie of the Year Under 7’1″ Award winner). But there aren’t enough points here to compete with Boston, not with Kristaps Porzingis burning switches and Derrick White scorching the net. Miami’s defense will be tenacious, creating organized chaos around one of the league’s best anchors in Bam Adebayo, but it can only keep the game competitive for so long until the team’s lack of star power on the other end becomes too much to overcome.
Things would be different if Butler was fit – you might remember him from last year’s first round when he dropped a Heat playoff record 56 points in Game 4 before closing it out with 42 in Game 5 in Milwaukee – but like many of these first round series, a late-season injury makes this a snoozer.
CELTICS IN FIVE
#2 New York Knicks vs #7 Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid’s knee is probably thankful that the Sixers triumphed in the 7/8 play-in game, giving him extra days of critical rest. Just don’t tell his knee that Philly’s first round opponent will be the Knicks.
Jalen Brunson’s spasmodic game will stress Embiid’s limp limb on every possession. His pick-and-rolls power a sputtering Knicks offense, a Porsche engine inside a 1995 Toyota Corolla. With Julius Randle out, the Knicks are mostly comprised of scrappy parts from the Villanova heap, but mid-season acquisition OG Anunoby offers championship experience, top-of-the-line defense and the potential to emerge as a credible third option offensively, which translates supermax player on a Tom Thibodeau team.
Given Thibs’ reputation and a No. 2 seed, it’s easy to overestimate the stoutness of New York’s defense, but this is not a unit with a ton of positional size and solidity. That was especially true for the large chunk of the season that Mitchell Robinson missed with an ankle injury. Robinson was once thought to be lost for the season, but he returned in the end of March and has been able to handle a reduced role of around 15-20 minutes. That is critical with Embiid sure to torment Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa with foul trouble throughout this series. The Knicks’ bigs can make Embiid work too, though, especially with him hobbled. New York was the second most effective offensive rebounding team in the NBA behind Utah; while Embiid has his hands full trying to curtail Brunson’s drives, New York’s centers have to make him pay on the glass.
Embiid has only played a hand full of games after missing all of February and March to recover from surgery on his left knee, and he looked creaky in the play-in against Miami. He was making an excellent case for a second straight MVP before his injury, putting up some of the greatest points per minute numbers in league history. He does have a flawed postseason reputation, however, and you can’t place all the blame on his previous second -in-commands, even if Ben Simmons and Harden are notorious postseason underperformers in their own right.
Philly has a different No. 2 option now, and I think he’s projecting to be the best guard Embiid has played with. Tyrese Maxey offered 20 points per game against Boston in the second round last season as Embiid and Harden’s third banana, and usurped the Beard’s role as primary ball handler with tremendous effectiveness, earning his first career All-Star appearance and likely the Most Improved Player Award. My spicy take is Maxey might be the best point guard in this series. His craft is not as finely tuned as Brunson’s is, but his quickness and bounce at the rim are athletic advantages that carry over well into the postseason, while Brunson’s lack of size and speed makes him susceptible to lengthy wing defenders and tailored defensive schemes.
Does this Philly team have enough of that to slow Brunson? Nick Nurse will ask a lot of Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris to stick in front of Brunson, but the Knicks will have Embiid in their sights as often as they can, forcing him to come out and greet the ball on his bad knee. It wouldn’t surprise me if Nurse, no stranger to an outlandish defensive scheme, tries to cook up a zone that can keep Embiid stationary as much as possible. Doing so would neuter a lot of what makes Embiid such a fantastic defensive anchor, but that version of Embiid might not be available in this postseason. Ultimately, I think New York’s gritty group will be able to outlast a Philly team that will rely greatly on its injured superstar. And you just have to wonder if Embiid will ever have a playoff run where we aren’t saying that about his team.
KNICKS IN SEVEN
#3 Milwaukee Bucks vs #6 Indiana Pacers
A postseason matchup that wouldn’t have drawn any attention on a preseason straw poll, the Bucks and Pacers did some MCU-like lore building in the past six months, beginning in Las Vegas when Tyrese Haliburton took a poignantly-timed peek at his wrist while knocking Milwaukee out of the In-Season Tournament, continuing with some game ball schadenfreude and culminating in a postseason matchup that is unfortunately dampened by injury.
Giannis popped off for a career 64 points about a week after losing in the IST semifinal in Vegas and wanted the game ball as a mantelpiece remembrance of his feat. But Oscar Tshiebwe scored his first career point that night, which the Pacers argued was a more memorable achievement. Video evidence shows a rather clear chain-of-custody of the game ball and it never appeared to leave Milwaukee’s possession, but that wasn’t clear to Giannis at the time, prompting him to berate Haliburton for being the face of a clown franchise. It was a highly entertaining moment of fabricated drama, and the freshly drawn bad blood between the two teams began to boil even hotter.
Haliburton hasn’t been the same since around that time. Not because of the game ball incident, but because he strained his hamstring on January 8. Prior to that, Haliburton was one of the most electrifying players in the league, leading Indiana to a surprise run to the IST Final and announcing himself in a pronounced way by mocking the Dame Time celebration after his late clutch 3 buried the Bucks in the semifinal. The new games played requirements for this season’s awards created several senseless quirks when it came to certain players being ineligible for playing too many games, but the worst part about the criteria was watching Haliburton come back too soon from the hamstring injury for the sole purpose of making himself eligible for All-NBA.
Haliburton started flirting with the 20-minute minimum for a game played to count far more often after the injury, and his potency on pull-up threes dipped massively. It was that specific skill that had propelled Haliburton into the superstar stratum, and without the extended range and boosted efficiency off the dribble, the Pacers’ offensive efficiency 106.3 before his injury to 104.1 after it. Although it couldn’t rest Haliburton was a massive bump in pay at stake, Indiana did try to make life easier on him by dealing Bruce Brown and some draft capital for Pascal Siakam in mid-January. The move signaled that the Pacers were ready to throw their hat in the ring. And then they traded Buddy Hield for nothing a couple of weeks later.
Hield will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, so trading him mid-season in order to get a return on an asset that you are willing to let walk in a few months would make sense. But a couple of second round picks doesn’t seem like enough compensation for a player whose high-volume 3-point shooting was crucial to the way the Pacers want to play. Indiana’s free-flowing speed racer offense is going to hit some speed bumps in the postseason, so integrating a solitary scorer like Siakam made sense. But jettisoning Hield was a contradictory move that lowered the ceiling of this squad.
It might not matter in this series, though. With Giannis sidelined for at least the first few games, the Bucks are the most vulnerable top-3 seed on either side of the bracket. The team has never inspired any confidence since Doc Rivers took over, somehow playing bottom-five defense since March and exuding the kind of exasperated tone that you would typically expect from a core finishing its fourth season together, not its fourth month.
And yet, I am strangely confident in the Bucks here, at least in their ability to avoid four losses in the first four or five games, opening the door for Giannis to return and face a team he scored 64, 54, 37, 34 and 26 against this season. Lillard and Khris Middleton have enough postseason experience as lead scorers to keep this team afloat, and you would expect that this group, once a defensive powerhouse, will finally show a little bit of a pride on that end in the postseason. Without Giannis, the Bucks are short a solid defensive option for Siakam, but Milwaukee has enough to stay alive long enough for this series to become a fair fight. The question is whether Rivers can convince this team not to drift away after months on life support.
BUCKS IN SEVEN
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #5 Orlando Magic
The kind of series that I will cram in the wee hours of the morning just so I don’t lose my card-carrying status in the Basketball Sickos club. A lot of bad basketball will appear to be played in this series, but all those missed shots and late-clock possessions are concealing a pure inner beauty: A clash between the third and fourth best halfcourt defenses in the league. OK, there will be bad basketball, too. Considering the injury issues Philly dealt with, these two teams had the worst halfcourt offenses among playoff teams. Defense is each team’s dominant hand, and they are not ambidextrous.
Not a lot of people will recognize Evan Mobley and even fewer will know Jonathan Isaac, and that’s a good thing. The less you know about Isaac, the better. He can really guard, though, and so can almost every rotation regular in this series. The question is whether you really need to smother Max Strus or Gary Harris, or if that’s just bullying to stroke your ego.
The mass appeal here is Paolo Banchero fast-tracking his way into superstardom, and also figuring out whether Donovan Mitchell is good enough for anyone to care that he might demand a trade this summer.
The latter has been oddly noncommittal regarding the massive extension (three years at around $50 million per season) that he is eligible for. It’s difficult to say what he is looking for at this stage of his career. If he wants to be the best player on a semi-competitive postseason team, this Cavs bunch – stout defense with an ace roll man as the anchor, a complimentary but not redundant point guard, participating in the Eastern Conference side of the bracket – is probably the only situation that offers him that (it occurs to me that Utah’s only flaw was geography, and maybe Gobert’s physiognomy). If Mitchell is envious of the co-stars Devin Booker is sharing the screen with, he’ll have to put together a postseason run similar to Booker’s in 2021 to convince suitors that he can be a top two player on a title contender.
Strangely, Banchero might have less to prove in that regard. Banchero already has himself a spot on the United States Olympic Team this summer, by far the youngest member of a Hall-of-Famer laden roster at age 21. Banchero played poorly for the national team at the 2023 World Cup, though he was far from alone in underwhelming for Steve Kerr’s non-medaling nationalists. Banchero didn’t seemed bothered by that in Orlando, following up his Rookie of the Year campaign with his first All-Star appearance, posting a 22.6/6.9/5.4 slash on 46/34/73 shooting splits in 80 games. Those numbers are even more impressive given the context of Orlando’s offense and the lack of complimentary parts. Franz Wagner, who won gold with Germany at the World Cup, took a step back after a strong sophomore campaign, mostly due to his 3-point percentage dropping from 36 to 28.
It was a regression that a team hurting for floor spacers could hardly afford, and the Magic were the only playoff team to rank in the bottom 10 in the league in 3-point shooting. What’s worse for Orlando is that the Cavaliers counter its main source of offense (attacking the rim and drawing fouls) with Jarrett Allen and Mobley protecting the paint. Banchero and Wagner are one of the more interesting young duos in the sport right now, but their working conditions will need to improve drastically for this team to become a serious postseason threat. I think Orlando will put up a solid fight here, especially in front of one of the league’s most underrated playoff crowds, but Mitchell and Darius Garland will sneak in some jabs during this defensive slugfest, and that should be enough to decide the series.
CAVALIERS IN SIX