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This is a predictable Finals matchup in the sense that the Eastern representative was decided with little commotion and strife while the Western bid was awarded after a slog of matchup-determined slugfests. Boston's place in the Finals was never challenged; Dallas is here because it challenged the right foes.
The 64-win Celtics are 12-2 in the postseason and their losses standout as complete outliers: Miami's ridiculous 23-of-43 shooting performance from 3 in Game 2 of the first round, and Cleveland's drubbing in Game 2 of the second round, a reciprocal riposte to Boston's own blowout in Game 1. Jayson Tatum has played some of the most complete basketball of his career without ever needing to offer the eye-popping scoring performances we know he is capable of, and Jaylen Brown is riding a high after being named Eastern Conference Finals MVP.
Of course, the most notable aspect of Boston's postseason run is the players they haven't played against. Jimmy Butler never made it on the floor for Miami, and Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Haliburton both missed the final two games of their respective series. What's more, Haliburton's Pacers took out a Knicks team with half its roster in the infirmary in a grueling seven game series, and those ailing Knicks took down a laboring Joel Embiid in an evenly matched six game bout. There was a war of attrition across the East, and Kristaps Porzingis' absence during the past 10 games wasn't nearly enough to even the playing field.
Dallas, on the other hand, crushed Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals but would have had a steeper mountain to climb against the defending champs. Similarly, the Wolves could not contain Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving but probably feel like they would have had a better grip on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander if OKC could have avoided that last-second foul in Game 6 and forced a Game 7 at home in the second round. You can keep going further down the line and talk yourself into several different Finals representatives if the matchups fell the right way (for instance, would the Lakers be here had they tanked the play-in game against New Orleans to face OKC in the first round instead of Denver?).
The Mavs are a worthy finalist, though. After their daring acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington at the trade deadline, they have been one of the best teams in basketball, forming an elite level defense around the game's preeminent offensive initiator. They had their own injury luck in the first round, with Kawhi Leonard only appearing in two of the six games, and playing so poorly in those games that he was probably better off staying on the sidelines. But Doncic has also been hobbled with a sprained knee for most of the postseason, though I’m sure Minnesota feels like it got dismantled by a player at the peak of his powers.
Dallas’ surprise run to the Finals has validated almost all of General Manager Nico Harrison’s gambles, which is why he was just handed a contract extension before this series even tips off. His biggest bet was on Kyrie Irving, who has looked every bit like the Kyrie Irving to Luka Doncic’s LeBron James during this postseason. Irving has not exactly contested the idea that he is a supreme No. 2 option rather than a leading man during the past few years, however there was a significant stretch of time where it wasn’t clear he was going to take basketball seriously ever again. Thus, Harrison’s bet was more on the person than the player, and Irving seems to have his feet firmly on the ground in Dallas, which is allowing his illuminating qualities as a superhero’s sidekick to shine.
Doncic finally has a complete and diverse supporting cast next to him that allows him to maximize his virtuoso mapping of the game. Minnesota entered the Western Conference Finals fresh off delivering some of the best defensive performances in recent memory against Phoenix and Denver’s cavalcade of scoring talent, and yet the Wolves were completely hapless against Luka. Perhaps the outside shooting from Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington and Josh Green, either in total percentage or simply in the timeliness of their makes, is due for some regression. But Dallas is so much more than their role players outshooting their career norms.
The towering tag team of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively has given the Mavericks two roll men whose vertical spacing provides a threat on every Doncic or Irving drive. Their defensive prowess has been equally as important, frequently meeting superstars like James Harden, SGA and Anthony Edwards at the rim with pristine verticality and timing. In the pace-and-space and small ball era, the roll man hasn’t been this integral to a Finals team’s approach since…Tyson Chandler on the Mavs in 2011 (shoutout to Chris “Birdman” Andersen for his work on the Heatles, though).
Jason Kidd has been maligned as a head coach, but his work in this postseason has been solid enough to supplant the infamous water spilling as his defining moment on the sidelines. Kidd recognizes the strengths of his luminaries and simplifies the stratagem so that Doncic and Irving can manipulate the defense as they see fit. Calling up the right screeners to seek mismatches, putting shooters and cutters in the right spots, and loading up in the paint behind their stars when the opposing team looks to attack their defense. Straightforward machinations, but it requires a keen eye for detail and a willingness to adjust on the fly.
Replace Jason Kidd’s name with Joe Mazzulla’s in that previous paragraph and you have an accurate description of how Boston’s head coach has helped lead his team to the Finals, apart from the spillage. The quality of their opposition certainly played a part, but what made the Celtics’ run through the East look so routine was how ingrained their playing style is after a dominant (and healthy) regular season. Boston is immaculately spaced, pass-happy and dogged defensively. Its approach is evident from the first minute and the Celtics don’t deviate, because none of their opponents have been able to muster the suggestion.
And so, though this series features a lot of different personalities, individual play styles and overarching narratives, there is a lot of overlap between these two teams. In a lot of ways, the NBA champions will be the team that plays the best version of the same game.
The Celtics and Mavericks will switch almost every screen, they will play a lot of one-on-one offense, they will swing the ball around to open shooters and launch 3s, and late in games, they will rely on their superstars to decide the outcome. The differentiation between these two teams exists in areas that have not yet been explored by the other team in this postseason, which is what makes the minutiae of this series so alluring.
Dallas’ collective efforts defensively have completely rewritten the identity of this team, which was vulnerable and disinterested at times before the trade deadline makeover. But as impressive as the Mavs were in curtailing Edwards’ superstar ascension, the Wolves’ complimentary pieces, or lack thereof, allowed Dallas to build a wall in the paint without fear of repercussion from behind the arc.
Boston is a completely different animal. With all eight of their rotation players shooting above 35 percent from deep during the regular season, the Cs posses true five-out spacing, without a Josh Giddey or Kyle Anderson around to ignore. When Edwards sought out Luka and attempted to blow by him, he was met with resistance in numbers. If Dallas attempts to give Tatum and Brown the same treatment on their drives, it will be punished gravely from beyond the arc.
Watching Kidd figure out how to overcome this conundrum will be fascinating. Dallas will need to be persistent and pesky with its stunts from the slots, and the Mavs will have to do everything they can to make sure Irving is kicked out of the low man spot any time Boston gets downhill. These are all terms I learned on the latest episode of the "Mind the Game" podcast. I hope to the coach of the Lakers by 2030.
The Celtics, meanwhile, haven’t faced a pick-and-roll maestro that can even slightly approximate what Doncic does in the playoffs. You don’t have to think back very far to remember what happened to the last celebrated crop of perimeter defenders that matched up with Luka (it was last week). Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Tatum and Brown is an excellent quartet of options to use on Irving and Doncic, but the Wolves they just torched in the conference finals came into the matchup with similar acclaim.
Boston will attempt to mitigate the damage Doncic can do with his lobs by matching Tatum up with Lively or Gafford and having Porzingis or Horford guard a wing. Doncic can still call Boston’s bigs up to get them into the action, but the roll threat is far less even with the athletic Jones darting to the rim because the five man on the floor will already be occupying some of the interior real estate in the dunker spot. This is where the return of Maxi Kleber might give Kidd an important tactical asset, as he offers great switchability defensively and a floor-spacing threat as a pick-and-pop man.
In what looks to be an even matchup, a small piece like Kleber or Sam Hauser or Jaden Hardy, whose inclusion in the Mavs’ rotation since Game 5 against OKC has been a masterstroke from Kidd, could decide the series. But what’s more likely, as is always the case in the NBA, is that the champions will be the team with the best player. And the underdog Mavericks are certainly the team with the top dog.
Boston is smoother around the edges, but as great as Tatum and Brown are, Dallas has a better chance of sputtering Boston’s engine than Boston does at slowing down Doncic. There is certainly a scenario in which Doncic dominates but the totality of the Celtics’ attack overwhelms the Mavs, but Dallas has shown me enough to believe that it can supplement Doncic and Irving’s talent with smart and efficient play on both ends that helps close the gap.
In this series, both teams will interrogate opposing weaknesses that have yet to be put on trial, and the team that problem solves the quickest will earn the upper hand. Boston is likely to land the first blow, given the Mavs' troubling history in Game 1s as well as the stark contrast between the way Minnesota and Boston threaten them offensively. So long as Dallas doesn’t take too long to adjust to Boston’s barrage of 3s and can find a way to constrain the Celtics’ spatial dominance, Doncic looks prepared to be fitted for the crown.
MAVERICKS IN SIX
